Data Comparsion

• Year over Year Retail Sales: 9.3% average in prior 60% rallies versus -5.3% in the current one
• Consumer Confidence: 95.5 average; 53.1 now
• Capacity Utilization: 79.9% average; 66.6% now
• Year over Year Industrial Production: 4.1% avereage; -10.7% now
• ISM: 53.9 average; 52.6 now
• Payroll employment gains over period: 2.2% average; -2.0% now
• Decline in continued unemployment claims from cycle peak: -26.3 average; -11.6% now
• Year over Year growth in total credit market debt: 9.3% average; 3.0% now
• Year over Year growth in household debt: 8.8% average; -0.1% now
• P/E Multiple: 16.8x average; 20.0x now

結論：

1. 美國唔再超前消費，政府比咁多錢去谷消費(cach for tucker, first time home buyer credit, tax refund)都唔可以起死回生，最多都係吊住條命。

2. 同中國相反，要由消費國變成出口國-->美元有序咁貶值

3. 印銀紙未必會引發通脹(指美國國內)，工業閒置產能係歷來低位，所以生產物價未能有效引導致消費物價。

4. 失業問題嚴峻，持續同首次領取失業救助金人數減少，只可反映被裁嘅人少左；但另一邊廂，u6嘅比率越來越高，即未有新職位，所以而家唔可以只睇平時睇嘅u3，要睇埋u6先知個實際情況。

5. 第二季同第三季公司業績有好有唔好，好嘅通常都係賺非美國嘅錢，而美元貶值會令到盈利有上升嘅錯覺；唔好嘅係盈利上升只因cost cut，收入唔少仍然係下跌中。

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