Saturday, July 12, 2008

房利美的運作

近排房利美同房地美嘅消息日日都有,過股價就跌極都有,不過嚟嚟去去都係睇聯準會接唔接管佢地,仲話等佢兩個摺嘅話,美國金融業會散,講到有幾恐怖就有幾恐怖。唔想比人老點,不如睇下房利美嘅運作先,睇下係唔係真係好似咁大鑊。

係WIKI 到,佢講到
FNMA's primary method for making money is by charging a guarantee fee on loans that it has securitized into mortgage-backed security bonds. Investors, or purchasers of Fannie Mae MBSs, are willing to let Fannie Mae keep this fee in exchange for assuming the credit risk, that is, Fannie Mae's guarantee that the principal and interest on the underlying loan will be paid regardless of whether the borrower actually repays.

唔想睇文字,可以睇圖
呢度

假如佢資不抵債,保障唔到自己買入嘅按揭,投資者害怕自己比嘅錢凍過水,會不斷同房利美攞錢,咁房利美係資金不夠之下,可以做嘅有

1. 賣翻比銀行,攞錢還債,但係銀行有水咩?

2. 係市場中拆借翻嚟,係de-leveraging 嘅美金融業入邊,一係借唔到,一係要比高息。

--前者還唔到錢,信心失去,咁按揭債券價格會插水,成個按揭市場會無人肯接,又定唔到價,金融機構又嚟多次大撥備,不斷咁循環落去,直到一切還完為止(無哂金融創新產品,做翻利差賺錢)

--後者咪將負債加大,解決突殊情況,將來市況隱定先再以債還債(較低息),但要個市場快d平穩,唔係耐唔耐會比人重提,仲要提出嘅係佢地個balance sheet 會好難睇。

所以咁樣,佢地會喺discount window度「度」水,同 I-BANK 一樣,遲d先還。若果唔咁做,唯有比政府接管,穩定個信心。

都係一句話,信心問題!

小弟嘅理解力係咁上下,有乜錯處請指正!

1 comments:

Anonymous said...

do you know why us government take over them then their price will go to zero

 
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